CAREER: The Use of Quantitative Geography to Predict Population Tipping Points for Colonial Seabirds

Sub-meter resolution satellite imagery is a transformational technology that radically expands our ability to study the spatial ecology of colonial seabirds. At the same time, satellite imagery and the geospatial tools being developed to explore it present novel opportunities for earth and environmental science education. The research objective of this five-year project is to use individual-based models of nest site occupancy, parameterized by sub-meter satellite imagery, to estimate the relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors in structuring the fine-scale spatial ecology of seabird colonies (biological process) and to understand how these within-colony dynamics drive habitat occupancy at regional scales (geographic pattern). This project involves three interconnected research activities: 1) the synthesis of manual and automated algorithms for satellite imagery interpretation, and the use of such methods to create a high-resolution, large extent database of penguin breeding occupancy from which species-specific habitat suitability models will be developed; 2) the construction and parameterization of a hierarchical (species-specific) stochastic spatially-realistic structured metapopulation model to study the processes of colony formation and collapse. These models, parameterized by the sub-meter satellite imagery, will elucidate how tipping points at the local-scale drive emergent dynamics at the metapopulation scale; and 3) the optimization of spatial and/or temporal metrics for 'critical slowing' as an indication of impending seabird colony collapse and, at larger spatial scales, regional extinction. The Broader Impacts of this project center around the development of secondary-school earth and environmental science learning modules that integrate geography (content), geospatial technologies (process), and virtual access to Antarctica (context) into a unified framework for teaching key components of the New York State Core Curricula for science. In addition to these modules, the project will involve paid summer internships for high school students to conduct independent research on Antarctic biogeography as part of New York's 'Science Research' curriculum. Finally, this project will provide research training for two Postdoctoral Researchers and two PhD students.