Development and Improvement of Inverse Model Components for a Robust GHG Emission Estimation System at Multiple Spatiotemporal Scales

PURPOSE: AS LOCAL, REGION, AND THE NATIONAL GOVERNMENTS SEEK TO MITIGATE GHG EMISSIONS, URBAN CENTERS ARE CENTRAL TO REDUCTION STRATEGIES AS CITIES ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR 60% TO 80% OF EMISSIONS. TO ACCELERATE 5 GHG REDUCTION EFFORTS, THE WHITE HOUSE RECENTLY RELEASED THE NATIONAL STRATEGY TO ADVANCE AN INTEGRATED U.S. GREENHOUSE GAS MEASUREMENT, MONITORING, AND INFORMATION SYSTEM (GHGMMIS). QUANTIFICATION OF URBAN EMISSIONS IS ONE OF THE CENTRAL FEATURES OF THIS STRATEGY AS IS THE COMBINATION OF PROCESS-ORIENTED(BOTTOM-UP) AND ATMOSPHERIC INVERSION (TOP-DOWN) EMISSIONS DETERMINATION METHODS. SUCCESSFULACHIEVEMENT OF THE RESEARCH OBJECTIVES PROPOSED HERE WILL MAINLY STRENGTHEN ATMOSPHERE EMISSIONS MODELING AND ANALYSIS CAPABILITIES USING BALTIMORE, WASHINGTON, AND ITS SURROUNDING REGION (NIST¿S NORTHEAST CORRIDOR GHG EMISSIONS MEASUREMENT TESTBED). ATMOSPHERIC OBSERVATIONS ARE A KEY COMPONENT FOR RECONCILING THE DIFFERENCES IN EMISSIONS BY THE TWO METHODS. IN SIMPLE TERMS, AN INVERSE ATMOSPHERIC METHOD COULD BE CONSIDERED AS A FRAMEWORK USING A DATA FUSION OR DATA OPTIMIZATION APPROACH, COMBININGBOTTOM-UP AND TOP-DOWN DATA TO OBTAIN A HIGHER ACCURACY EMISSIONS ESTIMATE. ALTHOUGH CONCEPTUALLYSIMPLE, THE INVERSE MODEL MUST ACCOUNT FOR NUMEROUS PHYSICAL PROCESSES, E.G., ATMOSPHERIC TRANSPORT AND DISPERSION, AND USE SEVERAL ADDITIONAL ASSUMPTIONS THAT IMPACT THE REVISED ESTIMATE. THIS RESEARCH IS AIMED AT INVESTIGATING SUCH ASSUMPTIONS AND IMPROVING SOME ASPECTS OF ATMOSPHERIC TRANSPORT TO REDUCE IMPACTS OF TRANSPORT MODEL ERRORS, AND POTENTIALLY TO IMPROVE OUR KNOWLEDGE AND IMPLEMENTATION OF THISRATHER COMPLEX MEASUREMENT SYSTEM. THIS RESEARCH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE CONTRIBUTIONS THAT ENABLE THE SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY, AND THE USER-COMMUNITY, TO IMPROVE THE CONDUCT OF QUANTITATIVE TOP-DOWN MEASUREMENTS OF GHG EMISSION RATES AT DIFFERENT SPATIOTEMPORAL SCALES, WITH A TURN-AROUND TIME WITH POTENTIAL TO PROVIDE READILY ACTIONABLE INFORMATION AND FEEDBACK TO COMMUNITIES.ACTIVITIES TO BE PERFORMED: THIS RESEARCH SPECIFICALLY SUPPORTS IMPROVED ACCURACY OF SCIENCE-BASEDQUANTIFICATION OF ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS AND BIOGENIC EXCHANGE OF CO2 AND METHANE WITH THE ATMOSPHEREIN URBAN AND REGIONAL SETTINGS AND WILL ALLOW:1. QUANTIFICATION OF GHG EMISSIONS FROM STATIONARY SOURCES,2. DEVELOPMENT AND IMPROVEMENT OF MODELING TOOLS TO BETTER QUANTIFY ANTHROPOGENIC AND BIOSPHERIC ATMOSPHERICEXCHANGE,3. REFINEMENT OF MODELING TOOLS FOR INTERPRETATION OF REMOTE SENSING OF ATMOSPHERIC GHG CONCENTRATIONSOBSERVATIONS, AND4. INCREASED UNDERSTANDING OF GHG TRANSPORT IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.EXPECTED OUTCOMES: DEMONSTRATIONS WILL INCLUDE:1. UTILIZE RECENT ADVANCES IN AIRBORNE ATMOSPHERIC INVERSION METHODS TO ESTIMATE EMISSIONS FROM THE AIRAND INVESTIGATE THEIR PERFORMANCE FOR SPECIFIC AREAS OF INTEREST PRIMARILY IN THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON,DC REGION.2. QUARTERLY TO MONTHLY GHG EMISSIONS ESTIMATES USING SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY EXPLICIT HESTIA EMISSIONSMODEL RESULTS COMBINED WITH ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC METHODS MAINLY ADDRESSING IMPROVEMENTSTO ATMOSPHERIC TRANSPORT MODELS BASED ON ADVANCED METEOROLOGICAL DATA, E.G., MULTIPLE DOPPLERLIDAR OBSERVATIONS.3. USE OF HIGH-RESOLUTION DOPPLER LIDAR MEASUREMENT DATA TO EVALUATE AND IMPROVE METEOROLOGICALMODEL PERFORMANCE AS A MEANS OF DECREASING UNCERTAINTY IN EMISSIONS ESTIMATES BASED ON COMBINEDTOP-DOWN AND BOTTOM-UP METHODS.4. ADVANCES IN HYPERSPECTRAL IMAGING ANALYSIS FOR BOTH CO2 AND METHANE PLUMES NEAR EMISSION SOURCESTO ENABLE URBAN FLUX QUANTIFICATION AT LOCAL SCALE, WITH VERY HIGH SPATIAL RESOLUTION (~ 30-METERS TO300-METER RESOLUTIONS).INTENDED BENEFICIARIES: ACADEMIA, LOCAL AND STATE GOVERNMENTS, AND THE PRIVATE SECTOR.SUBRECIPIENT ACTIVITIES: THE RECIPIENT DOES NOT INTEND TO SUBAWARD FUNDS.