An application of Bayesian inference to examine student retention and attrition in the STEM classroom

Introduction: As artificial intelligence (AI) technology becomes more widespread in the classroom environment, educators have relied on data-driven machine learning (ML) techniques and statistical frameworks to derive insights into student performance patterns. Bayesian methodologies have emerged as a more intuitive approach to frequentist methods of inference since they link prior assumptions and data together to provide a quantitative distribution of final model parameter estimates. Despite their alignment with four recent ML assessment criteria developed in the educational literature, Bayesian methodologies have received considerably less attention by academic stakeholders prompting the need to empirically discern how these techniques can be used to provide actionable insights into student performance. Methods: To identify the factors most indicative of student retention and attrition, we apply a Bayesian framework to comparatively examine the differential impact that the amalgamation of traditional and AI-driven predictors has on student performance in an undergraduate in-person science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) course. Results: Interaction with the course learning management system (LMS) and performance on diagnostic concept inventory (CI) assessments provided the greatest insights into final course performance. Establishing informative prior values using historical classroom data did not always appreciably enhance model fit. Discussion: We discuss how Bayesian methodologies are a more pragmatic and interpretable way of assessing student performance and are a promising tool for use in science education research and assessment.