An individual-based model for simulating the ecosystem dynamics of Jiaozhou Bay, China

The Object-oriented Simulator of Marine ecoSystem Exploitation (OSMOSE) is one of the end-to-end models developed for ecosystem dynamic simulation and management strategy evaluation (MSE) in support of ecosystem-based fishery management (EBFM). However, the implementation of such integrated models has been limited due to lack of data, and their performance in advising fisheries management has been rarely evaluated. We developed an end-to-end model (OSMOSE-JZB) representing organisms of high and low trophic levels in the Jiaozhou Bay, a temperate bay in China with limited available data. We evaluated the performance of the model for simulating the ecosystem dynamics by comparing the model-predicted species biomass, size structure, trophic level, and mortality with relevant data derived from scientific surveys and literature. In general, the model-predicted species biomass and size ranges were consistent with observations. However, the size structure of the two dominant fish species showed some discrepancies between the model simulations and observations. The predicted mean trophic levels from OSMOSE-JZB were closer to the values derived from an Ecopath model of the same region, compared to the values derived from empirical isotope analysis. The model's output suggested that predation mortality appeared to be the main source of mortality for younger individuals compared to starvation and fishing mortality. This study suggests that the OSMOSE-JZB performs well under a data-poor situation and can be considered as a baseline ecosystem model for developing EBFM.