Decadal and multispecies coral connectivity modeling for conservation and restoration prioritization in Florida

Coral populations are rapidly declining due to global warming and local anthropogenic stressors, with nearly all living corals at risk if temperatures rise beyond 1.5∘C. As reversing climate change becomes increasingly unrealistic, effective local actions are essential to mitigate its impacts and support coral recovery through targeted restoration and protection efforts. Biophysical models that simulate coral larval dispersal at reef-scale resolution are crucial for guiding these actions. However, the high computational cost of such models has limited most studies to a few species and spawning events, limiting insights into interannual and interspecific variability. Here, we used the multi-scale ocean model slim to simulate larval dispersal for six key reef-building coral species (Diploria labyrinthiformis, Acropora cervicornis, Pseudodiploria strigosa, Colpophyllia natans, Montastraea cavernosa, and Orbicella faveolata) across Florida’s Coral Reef over a 10-year period (2012–2021), incorporating experimentally calibrated larval dynamics. Our results show that connectivity indicators are most strongly correlated among species with similar spawning windows. Notably, incoming and outgoing connections exhibited the highest interspecific and interannual correlations. By integrating these metrics into a restoration indicator, we identified large clusters of reefs in the Dry Tortugas and northern Broward-Miami regions with significant restoration potential. The in- and out-degrees displayed limited interannual variability, with most fluctuations observed at outer shelf reefs in the Lower Keys and Dry Tortugas, where the ocean circulation is more variable. By providing long-term connectivity estimates for multiple reef-building species, this study offers valuable insights to inform marine conservation strategies.