Desarrollo y validación de un modelo de estratificación del riesgo en pacientes con neumonía por SARS-CoV-2 (Covid Cruces)

Objective: To develop and validate a risk prediction and stratification model in patients with the diagnosis of Pneumonia due to SARS-CoV-2. Material and method: Cohort study, observational and single-center, which included patients who came to the hospital emergency room with suspected COVID-19 pneumonia. Data from the patients at admission were analyzed: age, gender, existence and number of comorbidities, as well as analytical data and respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, Glasgow scale. Results: The model has included 15 variables, which with their corresponding weighting have shown a high discrimination capacity both in development (C statistic 0.823, 95% confidence interval) and in its validation (C statistic 0.794, 95% confidence interval). Conclusions: The model has shown a high capacity for discrimination and stratification of clinical risk in 3 levels (low, medium or high) of the patients.