Ecological Shifts: Plant Establishment in an Animal-Based Ecosystem

Shifts from saltmarsh to mangroves are well-documented at mangrove poleward boundaries. A regime shift from intertidal oyster (Crassostrea virginica) reefs to mangrove islands has recently been documented in transitional phases in Florida, USA. To understand the local drivers of an oyster/mangrove regime shift and potential tipping points leading to a permanent mangrove state, we tracked all mangrove propagules (n = 1681) across 15 intertidal oyster reefs with or without adult mangroves for 15 months in Mosquito Lagoon, FL. While no propagule bottleneck was observed, few (3.2%) mangrove propagules/seedlings survived on reefs with no prior encroachment, compared to 11.3% and 16.1% on reefs with established older (pre-1943) or newer (1943 to present) adult mangrove stands, respectively. In total, 90.6% of the arriving propagules were from the red mangrove Rhizophora mangle; 13.2% of these were alive at the end of this study. Survival was <1% for black (Avicenna germinans) and 0% for white (Laguncularia racemosa) mangroves. Factors that promoted red mangrove success included close proximity (≤0.3 m) to adult mangroves, especially black mangroves; partial, upright burial of propagules in sediment; and arrival on reefs after annual high-water season. Additionally, once reefs had 50% mangrove cover, the density of red mangrove seedlings increased from 0.04 to 0.46 individuals m⁻². Although climate change has alleviated the impact of extreme freezes on mangroves, local factors determine whether the regime shift will be complete and permanent; positive feedback loops associated with established mangroves suggest mangrove recruitment on intertidal oyster reefs will continue to increase.