Evaluating resiliency for American lobster and its fishery in a changing environment

The application of individual-based modeling frameworks has expanded over the last few decades, but their use is still limited in global fisheries management practices. These probabilistic models allow simulation of complex species’ life history and fishery-dependent processes. This research sees the advancement and implementation of the individual-based lobster simulator, an individual-based modelling framework, to simulate American lobster (Homarus americanus) stock dynamics in the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank region under a suite of climate change and management scenarios. With impacts of warming waters directly considered, the stock was projected out to equilibria under scenarios of status quo management and alternative future management schema. This analysis allowed for evaluation of the effectiveness and overall impact of alternative regulatory measures on the stock for a given climate change scenario. We conclude that regulatory changes were generally effective at maintaining spawning biomass and legal biomass under climate scenarios but were less effective at maintaining recruitment and landed catch. Furthermore, a given management action had less effectiveness at maintaining stock levels under increased levels of climate change.