Future changes in convective storm days over the northeastern United States using linear discriminant analysis applied to CMIP5 predictions

Future changes in the frequency of environmental conditions conducive for convective storm days ("CE days") are determined for the northeastern United States (NEUS) during the warm seasons (April-September) of the twenty-first century. Statistical relationships between historical runs of seven models in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and radar-classified convective storm days are developed using linear discriminant analysis (LDA), and these relationships are then applied to analyze changes in the convective environment under the high-emissions representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario over the period 2006-99. The 1996-2007 warm seasons are used to train the LDA thresholds using convective precipitation from two reanalysis datasets and radar data, and the 1979-95 and 2008-10 warm seasons are used to verify these thresholds. For the CMIP5 historical period (1979-2005), the frequency of warm season CE days averaged across the CMIP5 models is slightly greater than that derived using reanalysis data, although both methods indicate a slight increasing trend through the historical period. Between 2006 and 2099, warm season CE day frequency is predicted to increase substantially at an average rate of 4-5 days decade^-1 (50%-80% increase over the entire period). These changes are mostly attributed to a predicted 30%-40% increase in midlevel precipitable water between the historical period and the last few decades of the twenty-first century. Consistent with previous studies, there is decreasing deep-layer vertical wind shear as a result of a weakening horizontal temperature gradient, but this is outweighed by increases in instability led by the moisture increases.