Glycemic Status and Incident Heart Failure in Elderly Without History of Diabetes Mellitus: The Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study

Background: It is unclear whether measures of glycemic status beyond fasting glucose (FG) levels improve incident heart failure (HF) prediction in patients without history of diabetes mellitus (DM). Methods and Results: The association of measures of glycemic status at baseline (including FG, oral glucose tolerance testing [OGTT], fasting insulin, hemoglobin A_1c [HbA_1c] levels, and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance [HOMA-IR] and insulin secretion [HOMA-B]) with incident HF, defined as hospitalization for new-onset HF, was evaluated in 2386 elderly participants without history of DM enrolled in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study (median age, 73 years; 47.6% men; 62.5% white, 37.5% black) using Cox models. After a median follow-up of 7.2 years, 185 (7.8%) participants developed HF. Incident HF rate was 10.7 cases per 1000 person-years with FG <100 mg/dL, 13.1 with FG 100-125 mg/dL, and 26.6 with FG ≥126 mg/dL (P = .002; P = .003 for trend). In adjusted models (for body mass index, age, history of coronary artery disease and smoking, left ventricular hypertrophy, systolic blood pressure and heart rate [HR], and creatinine and albumin levels), FG was the strongest predictor of incident HF (adjusted HR per 10 mg/dL, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.02-1.18; P = .009); the addition of OGTT, fasting insulin, HbA_1c, HOMA-IR, or HOMA-B did not improve HF prediction. Results were similar across race and gender. When only HF with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≤40% was considered (n = 69), FG showed a strong association in adjusted models (HR per 10 mg/dL, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.03-1.29; P = .01). In comparison, when only HF with LVEF >40%, was considered (n = 71), the association was weaker (HR per 10 mg/dL, 1.05; 95% CI; 0.94-1.18; P = .41). Conclusions: Fasting glucose is a strong predictor of HF risk in elderly without history of DM. Other glycemic measures provide no incremental prediction information.