Incorporating spatial heterogeneity and environmental impacts into stock-recruitment relationships for Gulf of Maine lobster

Functional stock-recruitment relationships (SRRs) are often difficult to quantify and can differ over space. Additionally, climate change adds to the complexity of recruitment dynamics. This paper's aim was to incorporate spatial heterogeneity and environmental effects on productivity in SRRs with American lobster in the Gulf of Maine (GOM) as a case study. GOM lobster recruitment has substantially increased since the mid-2000s, due to improved survival rates of pre-recruits and increased spawning stock biomass (SSB). GOM bottom water temperatures have increased at a rate of 0.2ºC per decade, which caused lobster settlement area to expand and improved survival rates. We first estimated local SSB using bottom trawl survey data and a geostatistical model. Using estimated SSB, recruitment data from a ventless trap survey, and an interpolated bottom water temperature field, we developed modified Ricker stock-recruitment models accounting for spatial heterogeneity and temperature impacts with varying coefficient generalized additive models. Results showed that temperature significantly impacted recruitment. Changes in temperature mediated productivity differed between the eastern and western GOM. Our study demonstrated that the incorporation of spatial heterogeneity and environmental effects impacts our understanding of SRRs. These methods can be applied to other species to understand recruitment dynamics influenced by climate change.