Interval method for power station and substation reliability evaluation

The interval method for reliability analysis of power station/substation bus arrangements is proposed. Novel interval economic models for station/substation bus arrangements designs selection are presented. The interval component models for power station/substation interval reliability evaluation are given, which include circuit breaker model, busbar model and models of generator, transformer, transmission line and switches. Deconvolution formulae are applied to overcome the dependency problem and obtain sharp bounds of the results of reliability studies. The interval reliability evaluation and its results reflect the uncertainties associated with data throughout the analysis process, providing the quantitative value of uncertain risk and helping to select the optimal design. Interval analysis based station/substation reliability evaluation software is developed and applied to a large hydroelectric power station. All results demonstrate that the software is valid and effective. It provides a viable and easy-to-use tool for the power system planning, field engineering and operations. Furthermore, it is a flexible tool for sensitivity analysis.