Kidney allograft failure in the steroid-free immunosuppression era: A matched case-control study

We studied the causes and predictors of death-censored kidney allograft failure among 1670 kidney recipients transplanted at our center in the corticosteroid-free maintenance immunosuppression era. As of January 1, 2012, we identified 137 recipients with allograft failure; 130 of them (cases) were matched 1-1 for recipient age, calendar year of transplant, and donor type with 130 recipients with functioning grafts (controls). Median time to allograft failure was 29 months (interquartile range: 18-51). Physician-validated and biopsy-confirmed categories of allograft failure were as follows: acute rejection (21%), glomerular disease (19%), transplant glomerulopathy (13%), interstitial fibrosis tubular atrophy (10%), and polyomavirus-associated nephropathy (7%). Graft failures were attributed to medical conditions in 21% and remained unresolved in 9%. Donor race, donor age, human leukocyte antigen mismatches, serum creatinine, urinary protein, acute cellular rejection, acute antibody-mediated rejection, BK viremia, and CMV viremia were associated with allograft failure. Independent predictors of allograft failure were acute cellular rejection (odds ratio: 18.31, 95% confidence interval: 5.28-63.45) and urine protein ≥1 g/d within the first year post-transplantation (5.85, 2.37-14.45). Serum creatinine ≤1.5 mg/dL within the first year post-transplantation reduced the odds (0.29, 0.13-0.64) of allograft failure. Our study has identified modifiable risk factors to reduce the burden of allograft failure.