Lessons from seventy-five years of ecosystem modeling in the Northeastern US Shelf

As fisheries management agencies move toward an ecosystem-based management framework it has become common to develop large and complex models to investigate the dynamics of marine systems. We review the published literature using ecosystem models for the Northeastern US Shelf (NEUS) to identify trends in modeling practices, model complexification, model application, and model evaluation over the last seven decades. We reveal that NEUS ecosystem modeling efforts have focused primarily on the effects of commercial fisheries on individual stocks but rarely addressed questions related to climate change impacts. Additionally, we determined that only 14 of the 67 NEUS publications include model validation or evaluation, and we stress the importance of validation and evaluation for future NEUS ecosystem models. We compare modeling efforts in the NEUS to two other US large marine ecosystems, the California Current System and the Gulf of Mexico, to compare trends in model complexification and identify modeling techniques that could be applied in the NEUS. Finally, we draw on our synthesis of 75 years of NEUS ecosystem modeling to recommend modeling techniques and applications that have the potential to move NEUS fisheries management toward ecosystem-based management frameworks.