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Prediction and the quantification of uncertainty

  • Los Alamos National Laboratory Theoretical Division

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

50 Scopus citations

Abstract

Prediction is based on the comparison of results from the statistical analysis of observational data and from the scientific modeling of the system being observed. Effective prediction imposes new as well as familiar requirements on observation and scientific modeling, as will be reviewed here. We emphasize issues specific to prediction in the context of technology. Recent results of the authors, colleagues, and others which address these requirements will be presented.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)152-170
Number of pages19
JournalPhysica D: Nonlinear Phenomena
Volume133
Issue number1-4
DOIs
StatePublished - Sep 10 1999

Keywords

  • 02.50.-r
  • 02.50.Wp
  • 02.70.Lq
  • 47.55.Kf
  • 47.55.Mh
  • Bayesian inference
  • Markov Chain Monte Carlo
  • Multiphase flow

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