Quantifying mediating effects of endogenous estrogen and insulin in the relation between obesity, alcohol consumption, and breast cancer

Background: Increased exposure to endogenous estrogen and/or insulin may partly explain the relationship of obesity, physical inactivity, and alcohol consumption and postmenopausal breast cancer. However, these potential mediating effects have not been formally quantified in a survival analysis setting. Methods: We combined data from two case-cohort studies based in the Women's Health Initiative-Observational Study with serum estradiol levels, one of which also had insulin levels. A total of 1,601 women (601 cases) aged 50 to 79 years who were not using hormone therapy at enrollment were included. Mediating effects were estimated by applying a new method based on the additive hazard model. Results: A five-unit increase in body mass index (BMI) was associated with 50.0 [95% confidence interval (CI), 23.2-76.6] extra cases per 100,000 women at-risk per year. Of these, 23.8% (95% CI, 2.9-68.4) could be attributed to estradiol and 65.8% (95% CI, 13.6-273.3) through insulin pathways. The mediating effect of estradiol was greater (48.8%; 95% CI, 18.8-161.1) for BMI when restricted to estrogen receptor positive (ER⁺) cases. Consuming 7+ drinks/wk compared with abstinence was associated with 164.9 (95% CI, 45.8-284.9) breast cancer cases per 100,000, but no significant contribution from estradiol was found. The effect of alcohol on breast cancer was restricted to ER⁺ breast cancers. Conclusions: The relation of BMI with breast cancer was partly mediated through estradiol and, to a greater extent, through insulin. Impact: The findings provide support for evaluation of interventions to lower insulin and estrogen levels in overweight and obese postmenopausal women to reduce breast cancer risk.