Selecting out of Politics: The Self-Fulfilling Role of Conflict Expectation

In recent decades, the term politics has become almost synonymous with conflict. Results from eight studies show that individuals averse to conflict tend to select out of surveys and discussions explicitly labeled as political. This suggests that the inferences researchers draw from political surveys, as well as the impressions average Americans draw from explicitly political discussions, will be systematically biased toward conflict. We find little evidence that these effects can be attenuated by emphasizing deliberative norms. However, conflict averse individuals are more willing to discuss ostensibly political topics such as the economy, climate change, and racial inequality, despite reluctance to discuss politics explicitly. Moreover, they express greater interest in politics when it is defined in terms of laws and policies and debate is deemphasized. Overall, these findings suggest the expectation of conflict may have a self-fulfilling effect, as contexts deemed explicitly political will be composed primarily of conflict seekers.