Simulations of the interannual variability of stratospheric water vapor

Observations and model results indicate that the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) modulation of stratospheric water vapor results from two causes. Dynamical redistribution of water vapor from the QBO-induced mean meridional circulation dominates the observed variability in the middle and upper stratosphere. In the lower stratosphere, the QBO water vapor variability is dominated by a "tape recorder" that results from the dehydration signal accompanying the QBO variation of the tropical cold point tropopause. It is suggested that another low frequency tape recorder exists due to ENSO modulations of the tropical tropopause, but insufficiently long observations of stratospheric water vapor exist to identify this in the observations.