The effect of sea surface temperature increase on the potential habitat of Ommastrephes bartramii in the Northwest Pacific Ocean

In the Northwest Pacific Ocean, the squid jigging fisheries from China, Japan and other countries and regions have targeted the west winter-spring cohort of neon flying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii) from August to November since the 1970s. This squid is a short-lived ecological opportunist with a life-span of about one year, and its population is labile and recruitment variability is driven by the environment or climate change. This variability provides a challenge for ones to forecast the key habitats affected by climate change. The catch data of O. bartramii from Chinese squid jigging fishery and the satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) data are used in the Northwest Pacific Ocean from August to November of 1998 to 2004, the SST preferences of O. bartramii corresponding to high values of catch per fishing day (CPUE) are determined and monthly potential habitats are predicted using a histogram analysis of the SST data. The possible changes in the potential habitats of O. bartramii in the Northwest Pacific Ocean are estimated under four climate change scenarios based on the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, i.e., 0.5, 1, 2 and 4°C increases in the SST because of the climate change. The results reveal an obvious poleward shift of the potential habitats of O. bartramii in the Northwest Pacific Ocean.