Time-Frequency Reward-Related Delta Prospectively Predicts the Development of Adolescent-Onset Depression

Background A blunted reward positivity (RewP), an event-related potential elicited by feedback indicating monetary gain relative to loss, was recently shown to prospectively predict the development of adolescent-onset depression. Time-frequency–based representations of this activity (e.g., reward-related delta) have also been associated with depression. This study is a reanalysis of the time-domain RewP investigation to examine the incremental value of time-frequency indices in the prediction of adolescent-onset depression. Methods The sample included 444 13- to 15-year-old girls with no lifetime history of a depressive disorder. At baseline, adolescents completed a monetary guessing task, and both time-domain and time-frequency analyses were conducted on the event-related potential response to gain and loss feedback. Lifetime psychiatric history in the adolescent and a biological parent were evaluated with diagnostic interviews, and adolescents’ current depressive symptoms were assessed using a self-report questionnaire. Adolescents were interviewed again approximately 18 months later to identify first-onset depressive disorder. Results Blunted reward-related delta predicted first-onset depressive disorder 18 months later, independent of the time-domain RewP and psychosocial risk factors (i.e., adolescent baseline depressive symptoms, adolescent and parental psychiatric history). In contrast, loss-related theta did not predict the development of depression. Reward-related delta increased sensitivity (73.8% to 82.8%) and positive predictive value (45.0% to 70.9%) for first-onset depressive disorder when applied in parallel and in series, respectively, with baseline depressive symptoms and the time-domain RewP. Conclusions This study provides evidence that frequency-based representations of event-related potentials provide incremental value in the prediction of psychiatric disorders.