Weight change in later life and risk of death amongst the elderly: The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Elderly Network on Ageing and Health study

Bamia C, Halkjær J, Lagiou P, Trichopoulos D, Tjønneland A, Berentzen TL, Overvad K, Clavel-Chapelon F, Boutron-Ruault M-C, Rohrmann S, Linseisen J, Steffen A, Boeing H, May AM, Peeters PH, Bas Bueno-de-Mesquita H, van den Berg SW, Dorronsoro M, Barricarte A, Rodriguez Suarez L, Navarro C, González CA, Boffetta P, Pala V, Hallmans G, Trichopoulou A (University of Athens, Athens, Greece; Institute of Cancer Epidemiology, Copenhagen, Denmark; Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA; Bureau of Epidemiologic Research, Athens, Greece; Hellenic Health Foundation, Athens, Greece; Institute of Preventive Medicine, Copenhagen, Denmark; Institute of Public Health, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark; Center for Cardiovascular Research, Aalborg, Denmark; Institut Gustave-Roussy, Paris, France; German Cancer Research Centre, Heidelberg, Germany; Institute of Epidemiology, Potsdam, Germany; German Institute of Human Nutrition Potsdam-Rehbruecke, Potsdam, Germany; University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands; Public Health and Primary Care, London, UK; National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, the Netherlands; Public Health Department of Gipuzkoa & Ciberesp, San Sebastian, Spain; Health Institute of Navarra, Pamplona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Spain; Health and Healthcare services council, Asturias, Spain; Murcia Regional Health Council, Murcia, Spain; Catalan Institute of Oncology, Barcelona, Spain; International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France; Fondazione IRCSS Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori, Milan, Italy; and Nutritional Research, Umea, Sweden). Weight change in later life and risk of death amongst the elderly: the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Elderly Network on Ageing and Health study. J Intern Med 2010; 268: 133-144. Objective. Later life weight change and mortality amongst elders. Design. Nested case-control study. Setting. Six countries from the European Investigation into Cancer and nutrition - Elderly, Network on Ageing and Health. Subjects. A total of 1712 deceased (cases) and 4942 alive (controls) were selected from 34 239 participants, ≥ 60 years at enrolment (1992-2000) who were followed-up until March 2007. Annual weight change was estimated as the weight difference from recruitment to the most distant from-date-of-death re-assessment, divided by the respective time. Outcome measures. Mortality in relation to weight change was examined using conditional logistic regression. Results. Weight loss >1 kg year^-1 was associated with statistically significant increased death risk (OR = 1.65; 95% CI: 1.41-1.92) compared to minimal weight change (±1 kg year ^-1). Weight gain >1 kg year^-1 was also associated with increased risk of death (OR = 1.15; 95% CI: 0.98-1.37), but this was evident and statistically significant only amongst overweight/obese (OR = 1.55; 95% CI: 1.17-2.05). In analyses by time interval since weight re-assessment, the association of mortality with weight loss was stronger for the interval proximal (<1 year) to death (OR = 3.10; 95% CI: 2.03-4.72). The association of mortality with weight gain was stronger at the interval of more than 3 years and statistically significant only amongst overweight/obese (OR = 1.58; 95% CI: 1.07-2.33). Similar patterns were observed regarding death from circulatory diseases and cancer. Conclusions. In elderly, stable body weight is a predictor of lower subsequent mortality. Weight loss is associated with increased mortality, particularly short-term, probably reflecting underlying nosology. Weight gain, especially amongst overweight/obese elders, is also associated with increased mortality, particularly longer term.