Worldwide variation in hip fracture incidence weakly aligns with genetic divergence between populations

Summary: This study investigates the influence of genetic differentiation in determining worldwide heterogeneity in osteoporosis-related hip fracture rates. The results indicate that global variation in fracture incidence exceeds that expected on the basis of random genetic variance. Introduction: Worldwide, the incidence of osteoporotic hip fractures varies considerably. This variability is believed to relate mainly to non-genetic factors. It is conceivable, however, that genetic susceptibility indeed differs across populations. Here, we present the first quantitative assessment of the effects of genetic differentiation on global variability in hip fracture rates. Methods: We investigate the observed variance in publically reported age-standardized rates of hip fracture among 28 populations from around the world relative to the expected variance given the phylogenetic relatedness of these populations. The extent to which these variances are similar constitutes a “phylogenetic signal,” which was measured using the K statistic. Population genetic divergence was calculated using a robust array of genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms. Results: While phylogenetic signal is maximized when K > 1, a K value of only 0.103 was detected in the combined-sex fracture rate pattern across the 28 populations, indicating that fracture rates vary more than expected based on phylogenetic relationships. When fracture rates for the sexes were analyzed separately, the degree of phylogenetic signal was also found to be small (females: K = 0.102; males: K = 0.081). Conclusions: The lack of a strong phylogenetic signal underscores the importance of factors other than stochastic genetic diversity in shaping worldwide heterogeneity in hip fracture incidence.